200 hours MA at 0.6627 / 38.2% retracement at 0.66294
The NZDUSD moves lower and continues to retrace gains from Tuesday’s low. Yesterday’s high price hit swing highs and lows dating back to September 17th (see red numbered circles). The sellers leaned against the area and blocked the rally. The pullback (lower) of the close – aided by the decline in US equities – initiated the correction process. This continued at the start of the Asian session.
Technically, the price is returning to its 38.2% retracement of the move higher from Tuesday’s low. This comes down to 0.66294. Just below is the 200 hour moving average currently at 0.6627. A break below each of these levels would tilt the bias even further downward as the pair moves back into the range seen over the past 16 trading days. A break below the 100 hour MA at 0.66089 and the 50% at 0.66148 would add further decline to the technical picture.
As a reminder, the pair fell below the 100-day MA and a lower trendline on Monday. However, the fall could not be sustained, and yesterday’s rise moved the pair away from the key moving average level. The 100-day rise MA currently stands at 0.6588. Keep this level in mind in the event of additional weakness.
For now though, the pair is lower and the high stopped near a key swing area above yesterday, but the buyers are still in the game above the MA / 38 retracement. , 2% of 200 hours. Traders may look to lean against the area with stops below. The risk is defined, the risk is limited. If the level holds, moving back above 0.6653 to 0.6657 would give dips buyers more confidence.
Key support approached. Who will win?