Approaches 100-day AD again
Yesterday, EURUSD fell below its 100-day moving average for the first time since a brief hiatus on February 5th. You have to go back in November 2020 to find another breakout below its 100-day moving average. The fall below yesterday’s level could not, however, be sustained. The price has skyrocketed.
The initial move was up in trading today, and the price was able to break above its 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above at 1.20933), but stayed below its retracement of 50% of the movement down from the highest. last week (at 1.22423) at 1.21168 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.21201. Sellers have reemerged and the surge in US rates helped send the pair to new lows for the day.
Technically, the pair fell below a swing zone (see the red numbered circles) between 1.20493 1.20579. Price is currently trading between these levels after hitting a new session low at 1.20428.
The best scenario for sellers is to keep a cover on the rebound in the swing zone. If this can be done, a retest of the 100 day moving average at the 1.20245 area would be the focus of traders (and a lower swing area between 1.2019 and 1.20231).
If there is a bigger rebound, look at the 38.2% retracement of the day trading range at 1.20695 to the first European lows at 1.20734.