Short term technical outlook: trade setups on EUR / USD, AUD / USD and USD / MXN
- Technical charts on the configuration of the exchanges that we followed EUR / USD, AUD/USD &USD /MXN
- euro weekly opening range defined under the key resistance
- Aussie fails the third attempt to cross the highs at the end of September
- USD / MXN risk of inflection when the sell tests the critical support area
An update on technical configure us’ve summer monitoring inEuro, Aussie and Peso. These are targets and invalidation levels that matter as the end of the week approaches.Review my last Strategy webinar for an in-depth analysis of theseTrade installs and more.
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Euro price table – EUR / USD 120min
In the last week Euro price outlook we noted that “threat remains for a deeper pullback as below the weekly open at 1.1890 – look for exhaustion on the upside before this threshold IF the price is heading lower. The euro hit a low at 1.1745 in the following days before rebounding with the price again cutting out a week aperture range just below the key resistance to 1.1911 / 23.
Bottom line: Risk of further losses below this threshold – initial support at the weekly range 1.1814 with a lower exponent break 1.1761 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the range from November to 1.1723 – look for a wider reaction to get advice SI reached. A breach from above / close above 1.1924 is necessary to mark the recovery towards resistance objectives subsequent to 1.1961 and the higher parallel / 2018 open annually at 1,2005.Review my last Weekly Euro Price Outlook for a look at longer term EUR / USD technical trading levels.
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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD / USD 120min
In my most recent Australian dollar price technical outlook we noted that the AUD / USD was trading in a key resistance area and “to be on the lookout for possible upside exhaustion with the immediate advance vulnerable below the day’s close of September”. The pattern remains unchanged at the end of the week, with the Aussie looking to break the lows in the weekly opening range today.
Conclusion: initial resistance stable at 7321/29 with the threat of greater exhaustion under7371. A break below the midline is needed here to suggest that a larger correction is underway towards 7222, 7166 and the 61.8% retracement at 7125– look for a stronger reaction if reached. Review my last Australian Weekly Price Outlook for a look at longer term AUD / USD technical trading levels.
Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD / USD Price Chart
- A summary of IG customer sentiment shows traders are AUD / USD net-short – the ratio is -2.04 (32.89% of traders are long) – bullish reading
- Long positions are 0.67% less than yesterday and 10.31% more than last week
- Short positions are2.90% less than yesterday and 3.40% less than last week
- We generally take a vexing view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-short suggests that AUD / USD prices may continue to rise. However, traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared to last week. Recent changes in feeling warn that the current AUD / USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite traders remaining net-short.
of customers are net long.
of customers are net short.
Mexican Peso price chart – USD / MXN per day
In this month Mexican peso Price outlook we noted that USD / MXN that a weekly reversal had shifted the focus to the lower price, “keep the focus on the swing from 2019 to 20.2561 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 20.0752.Price hit a low of 20.0329 last week before rebounding with USD / MXN once again approaching the high day close of 2019 20.0752 / 1360 – search for inflection beyond this threshold.
Bottom line: USD / MXN is set to score an off-day reversal lower today, but keep the price above the key ssupport. A good area to reduce short / lower protective stops – a break / close below 20.0752 is needed to keep the short bias viable towards 19.8794 and 19.6591. Initial resistance is at last week high / the 75% parallel at ~20.6930 with a break above 20.8377 needed to shift focus higher in USD / MXN.
For a full description of Michael’s trading strategy, see his Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Series on Bbuilding a Tradiant Sstrategy
-Written by Michael boutros, Currency strategist with DailyFX
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