USDCHF OUTLOOK

Weekly outlook USD / CHF | Forex Action


The USD / CHF remained consolidated compared to 0.9901 last week and the outlook is unchanged. The initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, a breakout of 0.9638 will transform the downward bias to 0.9588 and below. But the decline should be contained by a 61.8% retracement from 0.9181 to 0.9901 to 0.9456 to rebound. On the upside, a breakout of the minor resistance of 0.9784 will target a test on the high of 0.9901.

Overall, the decline from 1.0237 is considered the third step in the model from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have finished at 0.9181 after reaching the key support of 0.9186 (2018 low). The breakout of 0.9901 will extend the rebound form of the resistance from 0.9181 to 1.0023. After all, medium term trading is likely to continue between 0.9181 / 1.0237 for a while.

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In the long term, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not yet clearly impulsive. Thus, we will treat it as evolving into a corrective model, at least, until a firm break in resistance at 1.0342.

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