USDCAD OUTLOOK

Weekly Outlook USD / CAD | Forex Action


The USD / CAD remained within the range established last week and the outlook is unchanged. The corrective pattern from 1.4667 could further expand with another decline. But the decline should contain a 61.8% retracement from 1.3202 to 1.4667 to 1.3762 to bring the rebound back. On the upside, a breakout of the resistance at 1.4140 will indicate the end of the correction. The intraday bias will go back up to retest 1.4667. However, a sustained break out of 1.3762 will cause the key support to fall further below 1.3664.

Overall, at this point we are still seeing an increase from 1.2061 (2017 low), which resumes the trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). A decisive break out of 1.4689 (2016 high) will confirm this bullish case. The next medium-term objective is a projection of 161.8% from 1.2061 to 1.3664 against 1.2951 to 1.5545. The rejection by 1.4689 will first bring some consolidations. But the outlook will remain bullish as long as resistance at 1.3664 continues, even in the event of a deep decline.

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In the longer term, the upward trend from 0.9506 (the lowest in 2007) is underway. A decisive break out of 1.4689 will target a 61.8% projection from 0.9406 to 1.4689 against 1.2951 to 1.6216. This is close to 1.6196 (2002 high).

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