USDJPY OUTLOOK

USD / JPY Weekly Outlook | Forex Action


The USD / JPY rose slightly to 108.08 last week, but has since declined. The initial bias remains neutral this week first. We are still in favor of the case where the corrective drop of 111.71 has already ended at 105.98. A further rise should be observed and a break out of 108.08 will cause an upward bias in the resistance at 109.38. However, the break out of the support of 106.74 will soften the bullish view and will transform the bias downwards to 105.98.

Overall, at this stage, the total decrease of 118.65 (December 2016) continues to display a corrective aspect, with good pipeline. There is still no clear sign of completion. The breakout of 101.18 would target 98.97 (2016 low). At the same time, a sustained breakout of 112.22 should confirm the completion of the decline and make the outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

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In the long-term chart, the rise in the long-term trough from 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) is considered an impulse move, no change in this view. The price actions from 125.85 are considered to be a corrective move which could continue further. In the event of a deeper decline, the decline should be contained by a 61.8% retracement from 75.56 to 125.85 to 94.77. The upward trend from 75.56 should resume at a later stage for the resistance zone above 135.20 / 147.68.

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