TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD consolidates near session tops. What do the technicians say?


Almost retraces the descent from yesterday’s summit

In an interview with Kitco yesterday, Adam talked about the RBNZ and how they said they were looking to monetize the public debt. It would be a bearish move (see the video here) all things being equal.

What do the technicians say?

Almost retraces the descent from yesterday's summit

Looking at the daily chart below, today’s price is higher on the day (closing at 0.6046). The pair is currently trading at 0.6070. The high price today is right next to yesterday’s high (today high 0.6072, and yesterday high was up 0.60746). Today’s trough has indeed dropped below yesterday’s trough, but there has been a clear upward trend. It will take movement below the fence to damage the bias. Until then, the price is higher on the day of the 4th consecutive day.

What is not so bullish is that the corrective movement from the March trough has stagnated near the 50% retracement of the downward movement from the peak in late December at 0.61109. On April 14, the price exceeded this level by 50%, but could not maintain the upward momentum.

So overall, looking at the daily chart, the price is up 4 days in a row, but if buyers want to take more control, getting and staying above the 50% retracement is key. This has not yet been done.

There is a little bullish. There is a certain downtrend and the price action in April was bleak, reflecting this uncertainty.

By exploring the hourly graph below, what is the technical saying on this graph (see below)?

Yesterday’s high fell slightly at the close, and fell sharply during today’s Asian session. This movement brought the price to MA of 100 and 200 hours (blue and green lines currently at 0.6009 and 0.6005), AND the 50% retracement of the movement from last week’s trough to 0.5992. Buyers came in, blocked the fall, and pushed the price up.

Maintaining support for this support group was a bullish movement. The subsequent rise to yesterday’s high was only stopped by the sellers against this high level. However, if that can hold, I cannot exclude that the buyers turn again towards sellers while moving back towards the MA in increase of 100 and 200 hours. He has already done it, he can do it again.

So overall, the daily chart is mixed.

The hourly chart is slightly more bullish given the price holding the 100 and 200 hours MA and the 50% earlier in the day.

That said, with yesterday’s high yet to break, the warning for bulls is to exceed this level.

If the sale is your bias, traders can lean here, with a halt if new heights are reached (with momentum – give some). I wouldn’t play with that if there is momentum to new heights. Instead, I would wait for the daily midpoint at 0.61109, or sell in the event of a failed break.

On the downside, the first bearish index today would be a move below yesterday’s close at 0.6046. Get below and stay below / close below (lower first closing in 4 days), and buyers can give up (and sellers should be looking to take more control).

Nzdusd on the hourly graph

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