The GBP / USD fell slightly to 1.2065 last week, but has recovered since then. The initial bias remains neutral this week first and more consolidated trade could be observed. But the outlook remains bearish as long as the resistance at 1.2467 continues. Return form 1.1409 should have been completed. On the downside, the breakout of 1.2065 will open the way to a new test of 1.1409. However, on the upside, the breakout of 1.2467 will lead to an upside bias for the resistance at 1.2647.
Overall, although the rebound from 1.1409 is strong, there is no indication yet of a trend reversal. The downward trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is likely to resume sooner or later. The next medium-term objective will be a 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 against 1.3514 to 1.0273. In any case, the outlook will remain bearish as long as the resistance at 1.3514 is maintained, in the event of a strong rebound.
In the longer term, the long term outlook remains clearly bearish as it remains well below the long term bearish trend line which started at 2116 (2007 high). The rejection of the EMA at 55 months also confirmed the decline. The breakout of 1.1946 will target a projection of 61.8% from 1.7190 to 1.1946 against 1.3514 to 1.0273.