TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

AUDUSD seeks to test last week’s high and steps back


Last week’s high hit 0.6213.

AUDUSD pushed towards last week’s hi swing at 0.6213. The last 3 time bars have peaked around 0.6207.

Last week's high hit 0.6213.

Traders seem to be leaning against this summit since last week. I would expect sellers to turn to buyers if they break. On the downside, the lowest of the last 3 hours equaled the April 1 high at 0.61827.

This gap between 0.61827 and 0.6213 is what traders are facing right now.

AUDUSD has been supported in recent days by sentiment risk. US stocks rose more than 7% yesterday. Today, global stocks are again higher, but there is a bit of a dropout. The S&P, Nasdaq and the Dow are trading at intraday lows. How this story will unfold would likely appear in the technical details of this pair.

Looking at the 5-minute chart below, the price hike in the past few days may have stayed mostly above its moving average of 100 bars (blue line) currently at 0.61818 (PS which is also the support current on the hourly graph). Declines in the past 2 days below the moving average of 100 bars found supportive buyers against the moving average of 200 bars (green line in the chart below). Yesterday was the basis before the price started to accelerate upward. Today, it was also a start of session base which led to a sharp rise.

If the price drops below the moving average of 100 bars to 0.61818, this should cause further weakness as buyers turn to sellers. The next bearish targets would be at the levels of 0.61685 and 0.61566. These levels represent the 38.2% retracement and the 50% retracement of the latest upward trend today. Below these levels, the moving average up 200 bars (currently 0.6147 and higher) would be targeted.

AUDUSD on the 5 minute chart
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