The AUD / USD rose slightly to 0.6616 last week, as the increase from 0.5506 resumed. As it has since declined, the initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, given the persistent bearish divergence in the 4-hour MACD, in the event of a further rise, the rise should be limited by a key resistance of 0.6670, at least on the first attempt. On the downside, the breakout of the 0.6402 support will confirm the short-term peak and reverse the downward bias for a 38.2% retracement from 0.5506 to 0.6616 to 0.6192.
Overall, there is still no clear sign of a trend reversal. The larger downward trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still favorable for expansion. The projection of 61.8% from 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 to 0.5507 has already been reached. A sustained breakout will open the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, a sustained breakout of 0.6607 will suggest a medium-term low and turn the concentration again to 0.7031.
In the longer term, the downward trend compared to 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It is too early to judge the depth of the downward trend. But a sustained break in the 61.8% projection from 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 to 0.5507 could pave the way for a 100% projection at 0.3888.