TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GBPUSD above 200 MA hours, and just below 50% retracement


Price pushed above trendlines and 100 hour MA today

GBPUSD rose sharply in trading today and is trading near session highs. The pair rose from the start, but gained momentum early in the European session.

Technically, the price rise was aided by moves above trend lines (two of them (see red and green numbered circles), the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 1.29453) and the 38.2% to 1.29765.

More recently, the price has expanded above the 200 hour MA at the 1.29973 level but has some second thoughts against the 50% retracement at 1.30146.

Buyers are taking back control with these moves. The traders who accepted the breaks today were nicely rewarded.

Now with the 50% as the next hurdle – after moving 100 pips or more – there is some stalling as traders take money off the table relative to the median level. A move above however, should see more polls higher with 1.30253 higher from last Thursday, then 61.8% to 1.30527.

Exploring the 5 minute chart, there was a lower corrective run after the pair initially moved above the 200 hour MA for the first time at 1.30043. This corrective move took the price 38.2% to the 1.29699 level, but only briefly before climbing higher. The rise of 100 bar MA on this chart (blue line) will be a technical index to the downside. Stay above the troughs and buyers stay in control.

GBPUSD over 5 minutes
Recall that the price fell below its 100 days MA yesterday at 1.28756, but the breakout quickly reversed. Falls below the 100-day MA in September were also rejected (no close below the 100-day MA). Going forward, keep this MA in the back of your mind. It remains a key barometer for long-term buyers and sellers (not near now).
GBPUSD on the daily chart

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