TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

AUD / USD Gains on Weaker Dollar But Can Buyers Maintain Momentum?


AUD / USD is currently trying to stay above its 100 hour moving average

AUD / USD S1 21-10
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While the dollar remains weaker across the board, the AUD / USD managed to hit a high of 0.7092 today, but is currently trading around its 100 hour MA (red line) @ 0, 7075.

Buyers are trying to regain some near-term control by holding above the key near-term level, but sellers have so far offered decent resistance to the session.

Looking at the charts, the reach of any major AUD / USD rally may be more limited with short term resistance closer to 0.7100 and also the 100 day moving average resting near 0.7103 for the moment.

This could very well hamper any bullish momentum in the AUD / USD, especially since the market is also keeping an eye on the RBA’s policy decision on November 3.

That said, the 0.7000 grip is also a key support level. who is likely to hold given the expected price for the RBA next month, all other things being equal.

As such, the dollar side of the equation is the main driver of the pair at the moment and therefore risk mood and stimulus hopes are the key factors to watch out for.

So far the market has kept some optimism and this is reflected in the bond market as well – which I would say is the most notable driver so far.

But is this a broader signal of the reflation trade starting to take hold or is it just a reaction to more (false) market-fueled hopes under a pre-election deal?

We will have to wait and see but for the dollar and AUD / USD, the technical levels above will give a clearer indication of the market bias in the coming sessions.

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