TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY runs through 100 MA hours and 38.2% of recent lower run


Going over the 100 hour MA is the first since July 23

The USDJPY horse came out of the barn at the break above the 100 hour MA at 105.039 (blue line). It was the first look above that level since the split on July 23. The price has since climbed to a high of 105.759. This move also broke 38.2% at 105.458 and a swing level at 105.672 (most recently). These levels are levels of risk. Yesterday’s high at 105.285 is also an hourly chart risk level now.

Going over the 100 hour MA is the first since July 23

The next target on top is the 200 hour MA at 105.853. Going back to July 23, the MA 100 and 200 hours were almost convergent. The breakout below the two started the bearish movement (at 107.10). The next 7 days saw the price trend trending as low as 104.18 today before starting the upward return movement. Today’s low crossed a lower trendline but failed on that breakout …

End-of-month flows seem to be contributing to the compression.

Looking at the daily chart, the lows for May and June stand at 105.978 to 106.067. This old floor is now a ceiling.

USDJPY on the daily chart

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