TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Oil stabilizes after earlier drop, OPEC remains central


Oil recovers earlier losses to unchanged levels around $ 60.65

Oil D1 02-03
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WTI crude was down 1% at the start of European trading just below $ 60, but rallied higher on the session as traders dismiss fears of an increase in OPEC + supply during the session. of the meeting later in the week.

There is talk of OPEC + allowing a 1.5 million bpd increase in the market, but overall I don’t think that is hurting oil sentiment much.

While the increased supply of OPEC + poses a threat to the price outlook, the gradual return of the global economy to more normal conditions is also a consideration.

OPEC + is not going to remove production caps all at once, which should help the market get a feeling that it will do so slowly and in tandem with improving global prospects; although the high prices certainly matter as well.

Either way, the recent surge in prices may call for some loosening of long positions, but beyond that oil remains very strong and the uptrend is still ongoing – as seen in the daily chart above.

Looking at the monthly image though:

Oil M1 02-03

Oil is still facing steep resistance from its 100-month moving average (red line) and key resistance levels from the trendline at around $ 62.03-62 if it holds above 60, $ 00.

These will be key levels to watch in the short term before heading towards the onset of the 2H 2021 summer lull.

However, if the global economic environment improves significantly in the second half of the year, it could also see oil prices rise, all other things being equal.

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