Bounced off the MA 200 hours earlier in the day
The NZDUSD corrected lower today after trading at the highest price since April 2018 yesterday.
The move lower took the price below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) and below its 200 hour moving average (green line). Today’s low stalled against the 200 hour moving average which is currently trading at 0.7028 (MA was lower earlier today when the bottom was set at 0.70267).
The price of NZDUSD has not closed below the 200 hour MA since November 4 – 1 month ago today. At the time, the 200 hour MA was down to 0.66583. The current price is at 0.70355 (yesterday high hit 0.7136).
A move below the 200 hour MA would be a step further in the bearish direction at least in the near term (if the price stays below). Staying below the 100 hour MA will also be more bearish (although price has traded above and below the 100 hour MA for a number of hourly bars today).
Note that although a breakout is bearish, the uptrend has been strong for the NZDUSD. There are plenty of bearish targets that should be broken, including the 38.2% retracement of the move higher from the November 23 low at 0.7024 and the 50% retracement of the same move to a increase equal to 0.7000 (see graph above). These are the minimum targets IF the bears need to gain more control over what has been a strong bullish move over the last month or so.