Can oil finally take a break?
In the space of a few months, oil has gone from the world’s most volatile commodity to a sleeping backwater.
It won’t last.
WTI crude climbed 40 cents on Friday to close a 5% gain on the week to $ 42.15. It is now 17% this month and 25% since the election night lows. More importantly, it is starting to threaten the high end which has persisted since June. That high of it is at $ 43.78 / bbl.
Looking at the chart, the latest move isn’t that impressive, but that doesn’t take into account the fact that the rally came just as Libya began dumping an additional 1 million barrels per day into the market.
The big risk is in two weeks and the OPEC meeting. The market has settled around a 3- or 6-month cut extension, but there are many warning signs that it will not be easy or easy to close a deal.
Going forward, I think this is one of the most important graphics in the world. It highlights the decline in investment in the oil market, which will continue next year. We are heading into a period of under-supply in the market when the pandemic ends.